dc.creator | Ruiz Ruiz, Francisco | es |
dc.creator | Menéndez Orenga, Miguel | es |
dc.creator | Medrano Ortega, Francisco Javier | es |
dc.creator | Calderón Sandubete, Enrique José | es |
dc.creator | Lora Pablos, David | es |
dc.creator | Navarro Puerto, María Asunción | es |
dc.creator | Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín | es |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-04-29T12:02:11Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-04-29T12:02:11Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2019-02-21 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Ruiz Ruiz, F., Menéndez Orenga, M., Medrano Ortega, F.J., Calderón Sandubete, E.J., Lora Pablos, D., Navarro Puerto, M.A. y Gómez de la Cámara, A. (2019). The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD. Clinical Epidemiology, 11, 615-624. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1179-1349 | es |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11441/95963 | |
dc.description.abstract | Purpose: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a
modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate
the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo-
hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to
evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients
hospitalized for a first episode of the disease.
Patients and methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180
patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score.
Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and
the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score
(using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE).
Results: For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence
interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE
score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD
score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the
development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68
(95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort.
Conclusion: The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with
primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently
valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized
patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to
validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation. | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Ministerio de Sanidad PI070945. | es |
dc.format | application/pdf | es |
dc.format.extent | 10 | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.relation.ispartof | Clinical Epidemiology, 11, 615-624. | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | * |
dc.subject | Heart failure | es |
dc.subject | Validation studies as topics | es |
dc.subject | Severity of illness index | es |
dc.subject | Inpatients | es |
dc.title | The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dcterms.identifier | https://ror.org/03yxnpp24 | |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Medicina. | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.2147/CLEP.S206017 | es |
dc.journaltitle | Clinical Epidemiology | es |
dc.publication.volumen | 11 | es |
dc.publication.initialPage | 615 | es |
dc.publication.endPage | 624 | es |