Artículo
The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD
Autor/es | Ruiz Ruiz, Francisco
Menéndez Orenga, Miguel Medrano Ortega, Francisco Javier Calderón Sandubete, Enrique José Lora Pablos, David Navarro Puerto, María Asunción Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín |
Departamento | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Medicina. |
Fecha de publicación | 2019-02-21 |
Fecha de depósito | 2020-04-29 |
Publicado en |
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Resumen | Purpose: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a
modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate
the two available clinical prediction ... Purpose: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo- hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease. Patients and methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE). Results: For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort. Conclusion: The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation. |
Cita | Ruiz Ruiz, F., Menéndez Orenga, M., Medrano Ortega, F.J., Calderón Sandubete, E.J., Lora Pablos, D., Navarro Puerto, M.A. y Gómez de la Cámara, A. (2019). The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD. Clinical Epidemiology, 11, 615-624. |
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