Time Series on Functional Service Life of Buildings using Fuzzy Delphi Method

Abstract

The functional service life of heritage buildings, defined as the time period during which the building fulfils the requirements for which it was designed, is a complex system that has still not been fully resolved and continues to be the object of research regarding its social, economic and cultural importance. This paper presents an application for analysing time series that reflect the state of building performance over time. To this end, historical time records are used that provided data that could be interpreted by experts in the field. The latter can then evaluate the input variables (vulnerability and risk) using the expert system for predicting the service life of buildings, Fuzzy Building Service Life (FBSL), this methodology put together the fuzzy logic tools and Delphi method. This model provides output data on the state of functionality or performance of each buildings at each moment in time whenever information records are available. The Delphi Method is used to eliminate expert subjectivity, establishing an FDM-type assessment methodology that effectively quantifies the service life of buildings over time. The application is able to provide significant data when generating future preventive maintenance programmes in architectural-cultural heritage buildings. It can also be used to optimise the resources invested in the conservation of heritage buildings. In order to validate this system, the FDM methodology is applied to some specific building examples.