Spain's Rising Melanoma Threat: A Comprehensive 30-Year Analysis (1990-2019)

Abstract

Aim: This study aims to elucidate the factors driving melanoma incidence trends in Spain by analyzing the GBD-2019 dataset (1990–2019) and investigating the age-specific, birth cohort, and period effects on incidence rates. Materials and Methods: This study analyzed melanoma incidence trends in Spain from 1990 to 2019 using an ecological design. Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and Spain’s National Statistics Institute. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and age–period–cohort (A-P-C) modeling was employed to assess the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on incidence rates. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, an estimated 147,823 melanoma cases were diagnosed in Spain. The ASIRs showed a steady increase for both sexes, with slightly higher rates observed in men. Both men (average annual percentage change (AAPC): 2.8%) and women (AAPC: 2.4%) showed a steady increase in the ASIR over the period. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct periods of incidence rate changes, with significant upward trends in earlier years followed by stabilization in recent years. Incidence rates increased steadily with age, with the highest rates in the 80–84 age group. Women tended to have slightly higher rates in younger age groups, while men had higher rates in older age groups. Both men and women experienced a steady increase in relative risk of melanoma throughout the 30-year study period, with significant upward trends across birth cohorts. Conclusions: Despite limitations, this study provides valuable insights into factors influencing melanoma incidence in Spain. By understanding age, period, and cohort effects, effective prevention strategies can be developed to reduce melanoma incidence.