dc.creator | Bernabeu Wittel, Máximo | es |
dc.creator | Ternero-Vega, J.E. | es |
dc.creator | Díaz-Jiménez, P. | es |
dc.creator | Conde Guzmán, Concepción | es |
dc.creator | Nieto Martín, María Dolores | es |
dc.creator | Moreno-Gaviño, L. | es |
dc.creator | Delgado-Cuesta, J. | es |
dc.creator | Ollero Baturone, Manuel | es |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-04-04T11:36:48Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-04-04T11:36:48Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Bernabeu Wittel, M., Ternero-Vega, J.E., Díaz-Jiménez, P., Conde Guzmán, C., Nieto Martín, M.D., Moreno-Gaviño, L.,...,Ollero Baturone, M. (2020). Death risk stratification in elderly patients with covid-19. A comparative cohort study in nursing homes outbreaks. Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 91, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.archger.2020.104240. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0167-4943 | es |
dc.identifier.issn | 1872-6976 | es |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11441/143937 | |
dc.description.abstract | Elderly people are more severely affected by COVID-19. Nevertheless scarce information about specific prognostic scores for this population is available. The main objective was to compare the accuracy of recently developed COVID-19 prognostic scores to that of CURB-65, Charlson and PROFUND indices in a cohort of 272 elderly patients from four nursing homes, affected by COVID-19. Accuracy was measured by calibration (calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshov (H-L) test), and discriminative power (area under the receiver operation curve (AUC-ROC). Negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV) were also obtained. Overall mortality rate was 22.4 %. Only ACP and Shi et al. out of 10 specific COVID-19 indices could be assessed. All indices but CURB-65 showed a good calibration by H-L test, whilst PROFUND, ACP and CURB-65 showed best results in calibration curves. Only CURB-65 (AUC-ROC = 0.81 [0.75–0.87])) and PROFUND (AUC-ROC = 0.67 [0.6–0.75])) showed good discrimination power. The highest NPV was obtained by CURB-65 (95 % [90–98%]), PROFUND (93 % [77–98%]), and their combination (100 % [82–100%]); whereas CURB-65 (74 % [51–88%]), and its combination with PROFUND (80 % [50–94%]) showed highest PPV. PROFUND and CURB-65 indices showed the highest accuracy in predicting death-risk of elderly patients affected by COVID-19, whereas Charlson and recent developed COVID-19 specific tools lacked it, or were not available to assess. A comprehensive clinical stratification on two-level basis (basal death risk due to chronic conditions by PROFUND index, plus current death risk due to COVID-19 by CURB-65), could be an appropriate approach. | es |
dc.format | application/pdf | es |
dc.format.extent | 8 | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es |
dc.relation.ispartof | Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics, 91, 1-8. | |
dc.rights | Atribución 4.0 Internacional | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | * |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | es |
dc.subject | Multimorbidity | es |
dc.subject | Death-risk | es |
dc.subject | PROFUND | es |
dc.subject | CURB-65 | es |
dc.title | Death risk stratification in elderly patients with covid-19. A comparative cohort study in nursing homes outbreaks | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dcterms.identifier | https://ror.org/03yxnpp24 | |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Medicina | es |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universidad de Sevilla. CTS-636 Grupo de Investigación de Pacientes Pluripatológicos y con Enfermedades Avanzadas | es |
dc.relation.publisherversion | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016749432030234X?via%3Dihub | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.archger.2020.104240 | es |
dc.journaltitle | Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics | es |
dc.publication.volumen | 91 | es |
dc.publication.initialPage | 1 | es |
dc.publication.endPage | 8 | es |