dc.creator | Berenguer, Juan | es |
dc.creator | Borobia, Alberto M. | es |
dc.creator | Ryan, Pablo | es |
dc.creator | Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús | es |
dc.creator | Bellón, José M. | es |
dc.creator | Jarrín, Inmaculada | es |
dc.creator | Carratalà, Jordi | es |
dc.creator | Pachón Díaz, Jerónimo | es |
dc.creator | Carcas, Antonio J. | es |
dc.creator | Yllescas, María | es |
dc.creator | Arribas, José Ramón | es |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-10-06T10:55:57Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-10-06T10:55:57Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Berenguer, J., Borobia, A.M., Ryan, P., Rodríguez-Baño, J., Bellón, J.M., Jarrín, I.,...,Arribas, J.R. (2021). Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score. Thorax, 76 (9), 920-929. https://doi.org/doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001. | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0040-6376 | es |
dc.identifier.issn | 1468-3296 (electrónico) | es |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11441/137685 | |
dc.description.abstract | Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.
Design Multivariable prognostic prediction model.
Setting 127 Spanish hospitals.
Participants Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.
Interventions Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.
Main outcome measures 30-day mortality.
Results: Patients’ characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%).
Conclusions: A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Fundación SEIMC/GeSIDA | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013-2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Subdirección General de Redes y Centros de Investigación Cooperativa | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe”, Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014-2020 | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)) | es |
dc.description.sponsorship | Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP)) | es |
dc.format | application/pdf | es |
dc.format.extent | 10 p. | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP | es |
dc.relation.ispartof | Thorax, 76 (9), 920-929. | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | * |
dc.subject | Clinical epidemiology | es |
dc.subject | Critical care | es |
dc.subject | Emergency medicine | es |
dc.subject | Pneumonia | es |
dc.subject | Respiratory infection | es |
dc.subject | Viral infection | es |
dc.title | Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dcterms.identifier | https://ror.org/03yxnpp24 | |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
dc.relation.projectID | (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB) | es |
dc.relation.projectID | RD16/0025/0018 (JRA) | es |
dc.relation.projectID | RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)) | es |
dc.relation.projectID | (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB) | es |
dc.relation.projectID | RD16/0016/0005 (JC) | es |
dc.relation.projectID | RD16/0016/0009 (JP)) | es |
dc.relation.publisherversion | https://thorax.bmj.com/content/76/9/920 | es |
dc.identifier.doi | doi:10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001 | es |
dc.journaltitle | Thorax | es |
dc.publication.volumen | 76 | es |
dc.publication.issue | 9 | es |
dc.publication.initialPage | 920 | es |
dc.publication.endPage | 929 | es |