Prediction of liver stiffness by serum indexes in HCV-infected patients with or without HIV coinfection

Abstract

Identification of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients should be a mainstay before starting treatment; however, the limited access of many centres to transient elastography (TE) is often a barrier for early assessments. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of serum indexes for predicting liver stiffness. Retrospective analysis of HCV patients (with or without HIV coinfection) routinely assessed in 7 centres in Spain. The diagnostic accuracy of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and their combinations was evaluated using a recent TE examination as a reference test (liver stiffness ≥ 9.5 kPa and ≥12.5 kPa for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively). In addition to area under the receiving operating characteristic curves, sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value were estimated. The analysis included 1391 patients: 346 (25%) HIV-positive, 732 (53%) people who inject drugs, and 178 (13%) incarcerated. Advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis were found in 557 (40%) and 351 (25%) patients, respectively. APRI < 0.5 (n = 595; 43%) had an NPV of 95% for excluding cirrhosis. Combined FIB-4 < 1.45 with APRI < 0.5 (n = 467; 34%) had an NPV of 87% for excluding advanced fibrosis. Combined APRI > 2 and FIB-4 > 3.25 (n = 134; 10%) had a positive predictive value of 89% for advanced fibrosis. Globally, this approach would avoid the need for TE in 53% of patients. HIV coinfection did not influence diagnostic accuracy. Inexpensive and simple serum indexes confidently allowed identifying the absence of cirrhosis and the presence of advanced fibrosis in 53% of a heterogeneous series of real-world HCV patients with or without HIV infection.