Ponencia
An Approach to En-Route Sector Demand Prediction subject to Thunderstorms
Autor/es | Valenzuela Romero, Alfonso
Franco Espín, Antonio Rivas Rivas, Damián Sacher, Daniel Lang, Juergen |
Departamento | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Ingeniería Aeroespacial y Mecánica de Fluidos |
Fecha de publicación | 2019-06-17 |
Fecha de depósito | 2021-02-26 |
Publicado en |
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Resumen | In this paper, a probabilistic approach to en-route
sector demand prediction at tactical level subject to thunderstorm
activity is presented. The source of uncertainty is the location of
the convective cells affecting ... In this paper, a probabilistic approach to en-route sector demand prediction at tactical level subject to thunderstorm activity is presented. The source of uncertainty is the location of the convective cells affecting the sector. An ensemble-based stochastic methodology is developed that takes into account the stochastic evolution of the detected convective cells. The sector demand is predicted for short forecasting horizons (less than one hour); the analysis is based on the statistical characterization of the occupancy count. A realistic application is presented. The results show that the sector demand can be accurately predicted at tactical level when thunderstorm uncertainties are considered. The effects of the stochastic evolution of the convective cells on the demand prediction are quantified. |
Identificador del proyecto | 699294 |
Cita | Valenzuela Romero, A., Franco Espín, A., Rivas Rivas, D., Sacher, D. y Lang, J. (2019). An Approach to En-Route Sector Demand Prediction subject to Thunderstorms. En 13th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2019) (Code 151955), Viena, Austria: EUROCONTROL. |
Ficheros | Tamaño | Formato | Ver | Descripción |
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An Approach to En-Route Sector.pdf | 879.8Kb | [PDF] | Ver/ | |