Irrigation distribution networks' vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Climate change will lead to changed demands on ex isting irrigation systems. This paper presents a methodology for investigating the performance of irrigation networks under climate change, and applies this to an irrigation network in Cordoba , southern Spain. The methodology uses emission scenarios (A2 and B2) developed by the Interg overnmental Panel on Climate Change. A global climate model (HadCM3) is used with downscali ng to predict climate variables for 2050 and 2080 under the emission scenarios. Euro pean agricultural policy scenario s are used to predict future cropping patterns. Irrigation water requirements are th en estimated for various combinations of these climate and cropping pattern scenarios, and the perfo rmance of the irrigation network is evaluated in terms of the equity and adequacy of pressure at the outlets, using EPANET. The methodology was applied to the Fuente Palmera irrigation district, which supplies water on-demand for drip irrigation. The results show that climate change would have a major impact on network performance with the existing cropping pattern, but that expected chang es in cropping pattern would reduce this impact.