A Modelling Study on Tsunami Propagation in the Caspian Sea

Abstract

A numerical model that simulates the propagation of tsunamis produced by submarine earthquakes was applied to the Caspian Sea. The model was first applied to the June 1990 (Rudbar) earthquake and our results proved to be coherent with previous simulations. It was also applied to the Krasnovodsk earthquake (1895), which had not been simulated before, and it was found that the coastal area was flooded by a tsunami, as reported in literature. Nevertheless, it was a rather local effect since the tsunami was generated in very shallow waters. Some worst-case hypothetical earthquakes were simulated in the most seismically active regions of the Caspian. In general, both the east and west coasts of the central Caspian Sea would be the most affected by these earth quake-induced tsunamis, with potential significant effects in some cases in cities such as Baku.