Ponencia
Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Fuel Consumption Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts
Autor/es | Rivas Rivas, Damián
Vázquez Valenzuela, Rafael Franco Espín, Antonio |
Departamento | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Ingeniería Aeroespacial y Mecánica de Fluidos |
Fecha de publicación | 2016-06-20 |
Fecha de depósito | 2021-02-10 |
Publicado en |
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Resumen | The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel
consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory
predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant
wind is considered. The average wind is ... The effects of wind uncertainty on aircraft fuel consumption are analyzed using a probabilistic trajectory predictor. The case of cruise flight subject to an average constant wind is considered. The average wind is modeled as a random variable; the wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The probabilistic trajectory predictor is based on the Probability Transformation Method, which is a method that evolves the wind probability density function; the output of the probabilistic trajectory predictor is the probability density function of the fuel consumption. A general analysis is performed for arbitrary winds distributed uniformly, with a twofold objective: 1) present the capabilities of the probabilistic trajectory predictor, and 2) understand how the wind uncertainty affects the fuel consumption. |
Agencias financiadoras | Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) |
Identificador del proyecto | TRA2014-58413-C2-1-R |
Cita | Rivas Rivas, Damián., Vázquez Valenzuela, Rafael y Franco Espín, Antonio (2016). Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Fuel Consumption Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts. En 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation Philadelphia, USA: International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (ICRAT). |
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