How do different methods for generating future weather data affect building performance simulations? A comparative analysis of Southern Europe

Abstract

Climate change will have a great impact on the hottest climates of southern Europe and the existing residential stock will be extremely vulnerable to these future climatic conditions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to update this building stock considering imminent global warming by applying climatic files that predict future conditions in building performance simulations. This research makes use of the two most applied tools (Meteonorm and CCWorldWeatherGen) for generating future climate hourly datasets for 2050 and 2080 in southern Spain. The results predicted for outdoor and indoor thermal conditions and cooling and heating demands are evaluated for two different scale simulation models: a test cell and a multi-family building located in southern Spain. The main aim of this work is the development of a comparative analysis of the results to highlight their potential differences and raise awareness of the influence of the climate data projection method on the simulation outcome. The results show that the projection method selected for producing future climatic files has relevant effects on the analysis of thermal comfort and energy demand, but it is considerably reduced when an annual evaluation is developed.