A pre-pandemic analysis of the global fertiliser trade network

Abstract

In this paper a complex network analysis of global fertiliser trade during the period 2014–2018 has been carried out. The goal is to study its structure both at the global and local level, identifying communities and main players, motifs, structural holes and brokerage roles. The persistency and variability of trade links have also been analysed. The Global Fertiliser Trade Network is characterised as a small-world network with scale-free prop erties, revealing a high level of reciprocity and centralisation. The network has a core-periphery structure consisting of five core countries (namely EU, USA, China, Brazil, and the Russian Federation) which trade among themselves and with most periphery countries, which have sparse connections between them. The interregional and community analyses indicate a moderate level of heterophily and a geographical component in the trade communities. The network also exhibits an overall tendency toward intransitivity which implies a strategic advantage for countries that act as brokers. This study provides a clear picture of the situation prior to the COVID pandemic and the Ukraine military conflict. Those events have affected global fertiliser trade in a way that has yet to be fully ascertained. The purpose of this paper is to firmly establish a reference against which to gauge the direction and magnitude of those changes.