Risk analysis sampling methods in terrorist networks based on the Banzhaf value

Abstract

This article introduces the Banzhaf and the Banzhaf–Owen values as novel measures of risk analysis of a terrorist attack, determining the most dangerous terrorists in a network. This new approach counts with the advantage of integrating at the same time the complete topology (i.e., nodes and edges) of the network and a coalitional structure on the nodes of the network. More precisely, the characteristics of the nodes (e.g., terrorists) of the network and their possible relationships (e.g., types of communication links), as well as coalitional information (e.g., level of hierarchies) independent of the network. First, for these two new measures of risk analysis, we provide and implement approximation algorithms. Second, as illustration, we rank the members of the Zerkani network, responsible for the attacks in Paris (2015) and Brussels (2016). Finally, we give a comparison between the rankings established by the Banzhaf and the Banzhaf–Owen values as measures of risk analysis.