Multiple linear regression and fuzzy logic models applied to the functional service life prediction of cultural heritage

Abstract

In this research, a proposal for the assessment of the functional service life of built heritage applyingstatistical tools is described. A fuzzy inference system is applied in order to establish a ranking in termsof functional service life for the built heritage, thus allowing prioritizing the maintenance and preventiveconservation actions in homogeneous groups of buildings, and optimizing the costs involved in main-tenance operations. The functionality of a sample of 100 parish churches was evaluated. However, theselection of maintenance strategies for buildings is usually a multiple criteria decision-making prob-lem, encompassing various variables and constraints. Therefore, a multiple linear regression analysis isapplied in order to rank the variables in terms of influence in the serviceability estimation of heritagebuildings. Currently, social, environmental and economic reasons are raising concern about the durabilityand functional service life of heritage sites. The results obtained in this study are useful to researchersand stakeholders responsible for the maintenance of historical buildings, since they allow reducing theirprobability of failure. The preventive maintenance programs can be considered as a cost-effective andenvironmentally sustainable option to extend the serviceability of heritage buildings.