Evolution of annual rainfall irregularity in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

The areas of the Iberian Peninsula with Mediterranean climate are characterised by rainfall irregularity. Standard statistical estimation methods provide a limited insight of all the dimensions of such irregularity. Based on different techniques to describe the inter-annual irregularity of rainfall, the authors develop a new method: the disparity indices. These indices are then applied to several historical rainfall series (dating from the end of the nineteenth century up to the present) from the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Similar rainfall irregularity patterns are found in all weather stations in the studied area, confirming their belonging to the same climatic region. The results indicate a relative stability during the first third of the twentieth century, coinciding with a period of low precipitation and a progressive increase during the last three decades. The use of a new index named specific disparity index has proven be useful in highlighting the irregularity within the rainfall series at each meteorological station. This new index could contribute to monitor future changes in precipitation within the general framework of research on climate change. Although Mediterranean ecosystems are adapted to important fluctuations in the rainfall regime, this increase in irregularity may affect rivers, wetlands and the hygrophytic vegetation.