Effects of climate change on the distribution of threatened invertebrates in a Mediterranean hotspot

Abstract

1. The effects of climate change may constitute a major threat factor for endemic and threatened species of invertebrates. A particularly dramatic case can be found in the Iberian Peninsula, because of its high rate of species diversity and endemism. We aim to evaluate the effects of climate change on the distribution of 36 endangered and endemic species of invertebrates within the Iberian Peninsula using species distribution models. 2. We used an ensemble species distribution modeling framework to estimate the species potential distributions under current and future (2050 and 2070) climatic conditions for two different areas: the whole Iberian Peninsula and the current species ranges. We assessed species vulnerability to climate change by calculating three complementary indexes: Change in Suitable Area, Persistence in Suitable Area and Turnover in Suitable Area. 3. Annual Mean Precipitation was the variable that contributed most to the climatic models. We categorized 25 species as “losers” because they will experience a reduction in their total suitable area under future climatic conditions, six species were categorized as “winners” and six showed contradictory results. 4. Climate change will have several effects on species by changing their suitable distributions and may affect their persistence. Species with narrow distributions associated to mountain ranges will experience the worst future projected conditions, while arid adapted species are expected to expand their distributions. Factors assessing the vulnerability of endemic and endangered species can be taken into account to develop strategies that mitigate the negative effects of climate change.