Effects of Reducing Wind-Induced Trajectory Uncertainty on Sector Demand

Abstract

In this paper, a first step to analyse the effects of reducing the uncertainty of aircraft trajectories on sector demand is presented. The source of uncertainty is wind, forecasted by Ensemble Prediction Systems, which are composed of different possible atmosphere realizations. A trajectory predictor determines the routes to be followed by the different flights to reduce the uncertainty of the arrival times. The sector demand is described in terms of entry count, that is, the number of flights entering the sector during a selected time period, which is uncertain because so are the the entry times to the sector. Results are presented for a realistic application, where the dispersion of the entry count is shown to be reduced when the dispersion of the arrival times is also reduced.