Optimal Aircraft Path Planning in a Structured Airspace Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Abstract

The optimisation of the aircraft route taking into account wind and temperature uncertainties is addressed in this work. These uncertainties are obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. A structured airspace is considered, which is defined by a set of waypoints and a set of allowed connections between each pair of waypoints. The analysis is focused on a cruise flight composed of several segments connecting given waypoints. The optimal route is seen as a path in a graph. The optimal path is obtained by applying a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming algorithm. The objective is to perform a trade-off between efficiency (minimum average flight time) and predictability (minimum dispersion of the flight time). Results are presented for a given trans-oceanic route, considering a real ensemble weather forecast.