Analysis of aircraft trajectory uncertainty using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Abstract

The problem of aircraft trajectory prediction subject to weather uncertainty is addressed. In particular, a probabilistic analysis of aircraft fuel consumption taking into account wind uncertainty is presented. The wind uncertainty is obtained from ensemble weather forecasts. The analysis is focused on the cruise flight, which is composed of several segments. Each segment is subject to both an average constant along-track wind and an average constant crosswind. The resulting ground speed is modeled as a random variable. A probabilistic trajectory predictor is presented, based on the Probabilistic Transformation Method. Results are presented for a given trans-oceanic route and a real ensemble weather forecast.