Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Detection and Resolution Considering Wind Uncertainty

Abstract

A probabilistic aircraft conflict detection and reso- lution method considering wind uncertainty is proposed in this

paper. The wind components are modeled as random variables, described by a joint probability density function. The case of two en-route aircraft flying with constant airspeed in the same airspace and flight level with approaching multi-segment trajectories and affected by the same wind is considered. The conflict is characterized by the minimum distance between the aircraft and the probability of conflict. The probabilistic conflict detection is performed using the Probabilistic Transformation Method. The conflict resolution problem is formulated as a parametric optimization problem subject to constraints, being the optimality criterium the minimization of the spatial deviation from the nominal trajectory. Numerical results are presented for statistically-independent and uniformly distributed constant winds obtained from Ensemble Weather Forecasts.