dc.creator | Cuevas-Maraver, Jesús | es |
dc.creator | Kevrekidis, Panayotis G. | es |
dc.creator | Chen, Qian-Yong | es |
dc.creator | Kevrekidis, George A. | es |
dc.creator | Villalobos-Daniel, Víctor | es |
dc.creator | Rapti, Zoi | es |
dc.creator | Drossinos, Yannis | es |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-10-01T08:56:03Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-10-01T08:56:03Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020-08 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Cuevas-Maraver, J., Kevrekidis, P.G., Chen, Q., Kevrekidis, G.A., Villalobos-Daniel, V., Rapti, Z. y Drossinos, Y. (2020). Lockdown Measures and their Impact on Single- and Two-age-structured Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico. Medrxiv, Agosto (14), 1-19. | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11441/101634 | |
dc.description.abstract | The role of lockdown measures in mitigating COVID-19 in Mexico is investigated using a comprehensive
nonlinear ODE model. The model includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic populations with the latter
leading to sickness (with recovery, hospitalization and death possibilities). We consider the situation involving
the imposed application of partial social distancing measures in the time series of interest and find optimal parametric fits to the time series of deaths (only), as well as to that of deaths and cumulative infections. We discuss
the merits and disadvantages of each approach, we interpret the parameters of the model and assess the realistic
nature of the parameters resulting from the optimization procedure. Importantly, we explore a model involving
two sub-populations (younger and older than a specific age), to more accurately reflect the observed impact as
concerns symptoms and behavior in different age groups. For definitiveness and to separate people that are (typically) in the active workforce, our partition of population is with respect to members younger vs. older than the
age of 65. The basic reproductive number of the model is computed for both the single- and the two-population
variant. Finally, we consider what would be the impact on the number of deaths and cumulative infections upon
imposition of partial lockdown (involving only the older population) and full lockdown (involving the entire
population). | es |
dc.format | application/pdf | es |
dc.format.extent | 19 p. | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | BMJ and Yale | es |
dc.relation.ispartof | Medrxiv, Agosto (14), 1-19. | |
dc.rights | Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | * |
dc.title | Lockdown Measures and their Impact on Single- and Two-age-structured Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico | es |
dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | es |
dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es |
dc.rights.accessRights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es |
dc.contributor.affiliation | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Física Aplicada I | es |
dc.relation.publisherversion | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20172833v1.article-metrics | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1101/2020.08.11.20172833 | es |
dc.contributor.group | Universidad de Sevilla. FQM280: Física no Lineal | es |
idus.validador.nota | Preprint
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice. | es |
dc.journaltitle | Medrxiv | es |
dc.publication.volumen | Agosto | es |
dc.publication.issue | 14 | es |
dc.publication.initialPage | 1 | es |
dc.publication.endPage | 19 | es |