Artículo
Maintaining Forest Cover to Enhance Temperature Buffering under Future Climate Change
Autor/es | De Lombaerde, Emiel
Vangansbeke, Pieter Lenoir, Jonathan Van Meerbeek, Koenraad Lembrechts, Jonas Rodríguez Sánchez, Francisco Luoto, Miska Scheffers, Brett Haesen, Stef Aalto, Juha De Frenne, Pieter |
Departamento | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Biología Vegetal y Ecología |
Fecha de publicación | 2022 |
Fecha de depósito | 2024-09-04 |
Publicado en |
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Resumen | Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the ... Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970–2000) and to project future (2060–2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060–2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change. |
Agencias financiadoras | European Research Council (ERC) Swiss National Science Foundation (SNFS) Katholieke Universiteit Leuven. Belgium National Science Foundation (NSF). United States Flagship Programme. Finland Swedish Research Council Research Foundation – Flanders (FWO) Agence Nationale de la Recherche. France |
Identificador del proyecto | FORMICA 757833
193645 3E190655 DGE-1842473 337552 2014-530 20182829 G0H1517N 12P1819N ASP035-19 ANR-19-CE32-0005-01 |
Cita | De Lombaerde, E., Vangansbeke, P., Lenoir, J., Van Meerbeek, K., Lembrechts, J., Rodríguez Sánchez, F.,...,De Frenne, P. (2022). Maintaining Forest Cover to Enhance Temperature Buffering under Future Climate Change. Science of The Total Environment, 810, 151338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151338. |
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