Applying the Spatial EBLUP to Place-Based Policing. Simulation Study and Application to Confidence in Police Work

Abstract

There is growing need for reliable survey-based small area estimates of crime and confidence in police work to design and evaluate place-based policing strategies. Crime and confidence in policing are geographically aggregated and police resources can be targeted to areas with the most problems. High levels of spatial autocorrelation in these variables allow for using spatial random effects to improve small area estimation models and estimates’ reliability. This article introduces the Spatial Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (SEBLUP), which borrows strength from neighboring areas, to place-based policing. It assesses the SEBLUP under different scenarios of number of areas and levels of spatial autocorrelation and provides an application to confidence in policing in London. The SEBLUP should be applied for place-based policing strategies when the variable’s spatial autocorrelation is medium/high, and the number of areas is large. Confidence in policing is higher in Central and West London and lower in Eastern neighborhoods.