Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series

Abstract

Earthquakes arrive without previous warning and can destroy a whole city in a few seconds, causing numerous deaths and economical losses. Nowadays, a great effort is being made to develop techniques that forecast these unpredictable natural disasters in order to take precautionary measures. In this paper, clustering techniques are used to obtain patterns which model the behavior of seismic temporal data and can help to predict medium–large earthquakes. First, earthquakes are classified into different groups and the optimal number of groups, a priori unknown, is determined. Then, patterns are discovered when medium–large earthquakes happen. Results from the Spanish seismic temporal data provided by the Spanish Geographical Institute and non-parametric statistical tests are presented and discussed, showing a remarkable performance and the significance of the obtained results.