2025-04-082025-04-082020-12Franco Espín, A., Valenzuela Romero, A., Rivas Rivas, D., Sacher, D., Lang, J. y Hauf, T. (2020). A Probabilistic Storm Avoidance Concept for En-Route Flight. En SESAR Innovation Days (SIDs 2020), Virtual.https://hdl.handle.net/11441/171570In this paper a probabilistic weather avoidance concept is presented, which integrates new meteorological capabilities in the storm avoidance process, namely, probabilistic nowcasts. These new meteorological products provide not only a forecast of the storm evolution, but also information about the uncertainty of the convective cells. In this concept, the required input is a probabilistic nowcast and a risk level, which is an adjustable parameter intended to define the avoidance strategy. The output is a unique avoidance trajectory that takes into account the uncertainty of the convective cells, obtained for the given risk level. Simulation results show that the safety and the workload of pilots and air traffic controllers are improved, although with a small loss of flight efficiency, compared to today’s practice. This new weather avoidance concept will be used in a follow-up project, with the goal of developing a Medium-Term Storm Avoidance tool intended to enhance air traffic control efficiency.application/pdf8 p.engAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Meteorological uncertaintyProbabilistic storm avoidanceShort-term trajectory planning.info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess