Article
A methodology for the stochastic generation of hourly synthetic direct normal irradiation time series
Author/s | Larrañeta, Miguel
Moreno Tejera, Sara Lillo Bravo, Isidoro Silva Pérez, Manuel Antonio |
Department | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Ingeniería Energética |
Publication Date | 2018-02 |
Deposit Date | 2024-09-25 |
Published in |
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Abstract | Many of the available solar radiation databases only provide global horizontal irradiance (GHI) while there is a growing need of extensive databases of direct normal radiation (DNI) mainly for the development of concentrated ... Many of the available solar radiation databases only provide global horizontal irradiance (GHI) while there is a growing need of extensive databases of direct normal radiation (DNI) mainly for the development of concentrated solar power and concentrated photovoltaic technologies. In the present work, we propose a methodology for the generation of synthetic DNI hourly data from the hourly average GHI values by dividing the irradiance into a deterministic and stochastic component intending to emulate the dynamics of the solar radiation. The deterministic component is modeled through a simple classical model. The stochastic component is fitted to measured data in order to maintain the consistency of the synthetic data with the state of the sky, generating statistically significant DNI data with a cumulative frequency distribution very similar to the measured data. The adaptation and application of the model to the location of Seville shows significant improvements in terms of frequency distribution over the classical models. The proposed methodology applied to other locations with different climatological characteristics better results than the classical models in terms of frequency distribution reaching a reduction of the 50% in the Finkelstein-Schafer (FS) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test integral (KSI) statistics. |
Funding agencies | Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO). España |
Project ID. | DPI2013-44135-R |
Citation | Larrañeta, M., Moreno-Tejera, S., Lillo-Bravo, I. y Silva-Pérez, M.A. (2018). A methodology for the stochastic generation of hourly synthetic direct normal irradiation time series. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131 (3-4), 1517-1527. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2188-4. |
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