Artículo
The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia
Autor/es | Rapti, Zoi
Cuevas-Maraver, Jesús Kontou, E. Liu, Zeng Drossinos, Yannis Kevrekidis, Panayotis G. Barmann, Michael A. Chen, Qian-Yong Kevrekidis, George A. |
Departamento | Universidad de Sevilla. Departamento de Física Aplicada I |
Fecha de publicación | 2023-05 |
Fecha de depósito | 2023-05-19 |
Publicado en |
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Resumen | Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly
populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing
COVID-19 ... Metapopulation models have been a popular tool for the study of epidemic spread over a network of highly populated nodes (cities, provinces, countries) and have been extensively used in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the present work, we revisit such a model, bearing a particular case example in mind, namely that of the region of Andalusia in Spain during the period of the summer-fall of 2020 (i.e., between the first and second pandemic waves). Our aim is to consider the possibility of incorporation of mobility across the province nodes focusing on mobile-phone time dependent data, but also discussing the comparison for our case example with a gravity model, as well as with the dynamics in the absence of mobility. Our main finding is that mobility is key towards a quantitative understanding of the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic and that the most accurate way to capture it involves dynamic (rather than static) inclusion of time-dependent mobility matrices based on cell-phone data. Alternatives bearing no mobility are unable to capture the trends revealed by the data in the context of the metapopulation model considered herein. |
Agencias financiadoras | EU (FEDER program 2014–2020) through both Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad de la Junta de Andalucía - Project P18-RT-3480 EU (FEDER program 2014–2020) through both Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad de la Junta de Andalucía Project US-1380977 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 - Project PID2020-112620GB-I00 |
Identificador del proyecto | P18-RT-3480
US-1380977 PID2020-112620GB-I00 |
Cita | Rapti, Z., Cuevas-Maraver, J., Kontou, E., Liu, Z., Drossinos, Y., Kevrekidis, P.G.,...,Kevrekidis, G.A. (2023). The Role of Mobility in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Andalusia. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 85 (54). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-023-01152-5. |
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BmB_cuevas-maraver_2023_role.pdf | 3.383Mb | [PDF] | Ver/ | |